This is part of a series of articles where we are looking back at Walter's pre-draft rankings and evaluating their predictive accuracy. The focus of these emails on where Walter's rankings differed from consensus - given that correctly differentiating from consensus is how you create edges in fantasy football. 

There has been a lot of patting Walter on the back in this email series so far, but this is where we get critical. This one is all about the players Walter had ranked above consensus that DIDN'T work out. Understanding misfires is critical for improve year-to-year, and we hope that you appreciate our transparency. 

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Calvin Ridley: 

Underdog ADP: WR16

Walter's Rank: WR10

Difference: +6

Overall Finish: WR24

PPG Finish: WR31

Ridley was maybe the sexiest WR pick in 2023 fantasy drafts. He was presumed healthy after missing all of 2022, entering an ascending offense with space to accommodate another high volume weapon, and already had a 1,300 yard season on his resume. Some insane route running videos in training camp only added to the hype. The upside was absolutely scintillating.

However, the Jags offense didn't take the leap we anticipated. And despite elite snap shares and route percentages, Ridley's target rate ranked 39th amongst all WRs. He wasn't a total disaster - saved in large part due to being 6th amongst WRs in red zone targets. But Ridley was not worth a 2nd round draft pick as recommended by Walter. 

Alexander Mattison: 

Underdog ADP: RB21

Walter's Rank: RB12

Difference: +9

Overall Finish: RB36

PPG Finish: RB42

The preseason case for Alexander Mattison assumed that he would get tons of volume in the Minnesota backfield, and that previous booms in his limited weeks as a starter were predictive of future performance. Perhaps Walter overrated those previous performances. Mattison finished 45th amongst RBs in yards per touch. He lost his work horse role after about 6 weeks, not seeing a snap share over 65% the rest of the season. The talent simply wasn't there to live up to Walters RB12 projection. By the end of the year, he was unusable in fantasy football.

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Chris Godwin: 

Underdog ADP: WR26

Walter's Rank: WR22

Difference: +4

Overall Finish: WR30

PPG Finish: WR38

To be fair to Walter on this one, he did properly predict that the Bucs offense was undervalued. He was even further above consensus on Mike Evans, who was one of the best WR hits of the season. Unfortunately, anyone that drafted Godwin saw none of this return. The scoring just wasn't there for Godwin this year. Despite ranking 15th amongst WRs in receptions and 23rd in total yards, Godwin ranked 58th in TDs. His 3 TDs in comparison to Evans' 13, makes for a difference of 60 fantasy points on the season. Its a cold world sometimes. 

Other notable whiffs from Walter in 2023: 

Javonte Williams

Marquise Brown

Antonio Gibson 

Treylon Burks

Skyy Moore

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Some notes on how we evaluated these predictions: 

*While injuries will always be a part of fantasy football, we will be ignoring major ones when recapping hits and misses. The randomness of most NFL injuries makes them extremely difficult to predict, and with major injuries you lose opportunity to evaluate player usage in their 2023 situations. For example, Walter was lower on Aaron Rodgers than consensus rankings (QB16 for Walter vs. QB12 Underdog ADP). It would not be right forever to call that a successful fade given that he tore his achilles before completing a pass. 

*Overall finishes exclude Week 18 - since most fantasy leagues conclude in Week 17 

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