This is part of a series of articles where we are looking back at Walter's pre-draft rankings and evaluating their predictive accuracy. The focus of these emails on where Walter's rankings differed from consensus - given that correctly differentiating from consensus is how you create edges in fantasy football. 

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Some notes on how we evaluated these predictions: 

*We opted not to use overall ranking for running backs due to the fact that Walter was overall much lower on the running back position in 2023 than consensus. MOST RBs had overall rankings below consensus. For example Raheem Mostert was ranked 4.7 spots below his overall ADP. However we still think there is valuable draft insight gained by having him ranked above consensus amongst all RBs.

*While injuries will always be a part of fantasy football, we will be ignoring major ones when recapping hits and misses. The randomness of most NFL injuries makes them extremely difficult to predict, and with major injuries you lose opportunity to evaluate player usage in their 2023 situations. For example, Walter was lower on Nick Chubb than consensus rankings (ranked 6.7 spots further back than his Underdog ADP). Nick Chubb massively underperformed his ADP after suffering a season ending injury in Week 2. It would not be fair to take credit for fading Chubb when there is no significant sample of work for us to evaluate. 

*Overall finishes exclude Week 18 - since most fantasy leagues conclude in Week 17 

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 Here are some of the running backs that Walter was correctly above consensus on in 2023!

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Top of the Draft Highlight: Jahmyr Gibbs

Jahmyr Gibbs: 

Underdog ADP: RB13

Walter's Rank: RB9

Difference: 4

 Overall Finish: RB8

PPG Finish: RB7

Outside of Christian McCaffery, Gibbs and Etienne were the only RBs drafted in the first 3 rounds to finish top 7 in PPG.  While it was a rocky start for Gibbs and his split with Montgomery, from weeks 7-17 he was the RB3 in PPG - putting him on a shortlist of guys at this position you could rely upon. This kind of late season boom is typical with rookie RBs taken in the top half of the first round of the NFL draft. In a year with a lot of dud RB picks at the top of the draft, taking Gibbs in the third round or later was a major win. 

Other RBs in this range that Walter liked more than consensus(number of spots Walter Positional Rank was ahead of Overall Positional ADP): 

Joe Mixon(4) 👍

Tony Pollard (2) 👎

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Middle Round Highlight: Rachaad White

Rachaad White: 

Underdog ADP: RB28

Walter's Rank: RB17

Difference: 11

 Overall Finish: RB6

PPG Finish: RB9

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White was quietly one of the league winners of 2023. He played in every single game for the Buccanneers, consistently performed at an RB1 level, and turned it up down the stretch when he was most needed. From weeks 7-17 he was the overall RB2 and the RB4 in PPG. Ranking him 11 slots above consensus amongst RBs was easily one of the sharpest rankings that Walter had in all of 2023. 

Other RBs in this range that Walter liked more than consensus(number of spots Walter Positional Rank was ahead of Overall Positional ADP): 

James Conner (6) 👍

James Cook (9) 👍👍

David Montgomery (7) 👍👍

Javonte Williams (7) 👎

Alexander Mattison (9) 👎

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Best Sleeper Pick: Raheem Mostert

Raheem Mostert: 

Underdog ADP: RB43

Walter's Rank: RB36

Difference: 7

 Overall Finish: RB3

PPG Finish: RB4

Uncertainty in the Dolphins backfield in the preseason suppressed the draft value Mostert. The expectation was that no single back would dominate the workload in this backfield - which ended up being true to an extent - but the explosiveness of their run game and overall offense made this irrelevant. Mostert found himself finishing as the RB3 on the back of 21 TDs in what was his healthiest season in years. This was WITH Achane also finishing as the RB5 in PPG. Walter correctly identified that his boom potential made him a better bet than other running backs late in drafts and those that listened were rewarded handsomely. 

Other RBs in this range that Walter liked more than consensus(number of spots Walter Positional Rank was ahead of Overall Positional ADP): 

Jaylen Warren (46) 👍

Devin Singletary (72.1) 👍

Chuba Hubbard (69.8) 👍

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