This is part of a series of articles where we are looking back at Walter's pre-draft rankings and evaluating their predictive accuracy. The focus of these emails on where Walter's rankings differed from consensus - given that correctly differentiating from consensus is how you create edges in fantasy football. 

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Some notes on how we evaluated these predictions: 

*While injuries will always be a part of fantasy football, we will be ignoring major ones when recapping hits and misses. The randomness of most NFL injuries makes them extremely difficult to predict, and with major injuries you lose opportunity to evaluate player usage in their 2023 situations. For example, Walter was lower on Aaron Rodgers than consensus rankings (QB16 for Walter vs. QB12 Underdog ADP). It would not be right forever to call that a successful fade given that he tore his achilles before completing a pass. 

*Overall finishes exclude Week 18 - since most fantasy leagues conclude in Week 17 

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 This article is about the guys that Walter was lower on than consensus. These are the guys you're glad you didn't take!

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Top of the Draft: Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes: 

Underdog ADP: QB1

Walter's Rank: QB3

Difference: -2

Overall Finish: QB7

PPG Finish: QB13

A two position difference in rankings may not seem like a lot, until you factor in the fact that usually to acquire the QB1 you have to reach for them. Alternatively, Walter's rankings encouraged reaching for guys like Hurts or Josh Allen. Finishing behind Jordan Love and Brock Purdy, Mahomes was simply not an impactful fantasy QB in 2023. Drafting him in the 2nd round of a fantasy draft would've a season killer for most. 

Other players near the top of the draft that Walter faded: 

Derrick Henry 👍

Najee Harris  👍

Travis Etienne Jr. 👎

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Middle Rounds: Drake London

Drake London: 

Underdog ADP: WR23

Walter's Rank: WR31

Difference: -8

Overall Finish: WR36

PPG Finish: WR44

This is by far the biggest fade on a WR that Walter had amongst the top 30 guys. While many hoped for London to build off of impressive second half usage in 2022, the Falcons continued to have horrific QB play and questionable usage for their star players. Anybody who rostered players coached by Arthur Smith wanted to rip their hair out at some point this season. Hopefully you drafted Mike Evans instead, who was being drafted as the WR33 but ranked higher than London in Walter's rankings. 

Other players in the middle rounds that Walter faded: 

Breece Hall  👎

Christian Watson 👍

Miles Sanders  👍👍

Jerry Jeudy 👍

Alvin Kamara 👎

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Sleeper Pick Walter DID NOT Buy: Kadarius Toney

Kadarius Toney: 

Underdog ADP: WR42

Walter's Rank: WR66

Difference: -44

Overall Finish: WR106

PPG Finish: WR102

The argument for a Toney breakout was certainly there. A former first round pick who had showcased elite YAC skills was coming into an offense with the best QB in the league - AND had gaping holes at the WR position. But Walter didn't buy it. Toney had played fewer than 35% of the snaps in every game with the Chiefs in 2022. He also had an extensive injury history entering only his third season. As is the case most times in fantasy football, talent cannot make up for a lack of reliability. Its hard to see a world where Toney is drafted in many fantasy leagues next season. 

Other sleeper picks that Walter faded: 

Jamaal Williams  👍👍

Rashaad Penny  👍👍

Juju Smith-Schuster  👍👍

Cole Kmet 👎

Jameson Williams 👍

Rashee Rice 👎👎

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