Walter's Biggest Whiffs of 2024

This our third off-season article where we've looked back at Walter's pre-draft rankings and evaluating their predictive accuracy. The focus of these emails on where Walter's rankings differed from consensus - given that correctly differentiating from consensus is how you create edges in fantasy football. 

 There has been a lot of patting Walter on the back in these recap articles so far, but this is where we get critical. This one is all about the players Walter had ranked above consensus that DIDN'T work out. Understanding misfires is critical for improve year-to-year, and we hope that you appreciate our transparency. 

 Last year's article highlighted misses like: 

Calvin Ridley 

Alexander Mattison 

Chris Godwin

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Jaylen Waddle: 

Sleeper ADP: WR19

Walter's Rank: WR13

Overall ADP: 37.3

Overall Walter Rank: 25

Difference: 12.3

Overall Finish: WR48

PPG Finish: WR55

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Waddle was seemingly the only prominent player in fantasy not the benefit from the Dolphins offensive explosion last season. They had two RBs finish top 5 in PPG and Tyreek Hill was historic. While everyone else went crazy, Waddle's efficiency declined from 2022 and he scored only 4 TDs. Fast forward to draft season 2024 and Waddle was a fairly priced way to buy into a top offense and was due for some positive regression...

Well, that positivity never came. The Dolphins offense plummeted with injuries to Tua and team-wide blocking issues. They had the 7th fewest TDs in the league and Waddle had 20 fewer targets than last season despite playing one more game. The decline in usage was alarming. Don't expect Waddle to be much more than a mid-late round flier next season. 

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Cooper Kupp: 

Sleeper ADP: WR18

Walter's Rank: WR11

Overall ADP: 35.8

Overall Walter Rank: 21

Difference: 14.8

Overall Finish: WR36

PPG Finish: WR23

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Kupp's injury riddled 2023 made him one of the most polarizing draft picks in 2024. Skeptics pointed to a decline in efficiency in games played by both him and Puka Nacua and were alarmed by his injury history. Optimists pointed to his high target rate when healthy down the stretch, a high red-zone target rate, and his chemistry with Matt Stafford to argue that Kupp could be the steal of the middle rounds. 

Despite an IR stint, Kupp looked like himself for most of the season averaging 19.75 PPR points per game in his 8 full games through Week 14. Unfortunately, he was a playoff murderer. He got only 3 targets per game during playoff weeks scoring 0, 9.4, and 3.9 points. Ultimately, he did not live up to his ADP and killed championship hopes for just about everyone who drafted him. 

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Isiah Pacheco: 

Sleeper ADP: WR26

Walter's Rank: WR22

Overall ADP: 

Overall Walter Rank: 

Difference: 7.5

Overall Finish: RB61

PPG Finish: RB42

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Pacheco's injuries explain some of his lumps in 2024, he still had a sizable sample of play that was extremely disappointing . He broke his leg in Week 2 in the midst of a solid start to his season, but once he returned his volume/efficiency was plummeted. In Weeks 13-17, he never eclipsed 10 fantasy points, never eclipsed a 50% snap share, and had almost no role in the passing game. It'll be interesting to see how KC addresses their backfield next season, but it appears as though Pacheco's days at the top of fantasy drafts are over. 

Other notable whiffs from Walter in 2024  (number of spots Walter was ahead in ADP): 

Christian Kirk (8.5)

Dalton Kincaid (4.1)

Tank Dell (8.7)

Amari Cooper (9.7)

Deshaun Watson (8)

Diontae Johnson (24)

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Some notes on how we evaluated these predictions: 

*While injuries will always be a part of fantasy football, we will be ignoring major ones when recapping hits and misses. The randomness of most NFL injuries makes them extremely difficult to predict, and with major injuries you lose opportunity to evaluate player usage in their 2024.

*Overall finishes exclude Week 18 - since most fantasy leagues conclude in Week 17 

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