We are looking back at Walter's pre-draft rankings and evaluating their predictive accuracy. The focus of these articles on where Walter's rankings differed from consensus - given that correctly differentiating from consensus is how you create edges in fantasy football. 

This email is about the guys that Walter was lower on than consensus. These are the guys you're glad you didn't take!

Last year's piece highlighted guys like: 

Patrick Mahomes 

Drake London 

Kadarius Toney 

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Top 5 Rounds: Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce: 

Sleeper ADP: TE1

Walter's Rank: TE2

Overall ADP: 20.6

Overall Rank: 43

Difference: -22.4

Overall Finish: TE5

PPG Finish: TE7

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Kelce was able to gut out a TE2 finish in 2023 despite definitively losing his status as "the biggest advantage in fantasy football." We had him ranked as the TE2 entering the season but were adamantly opposed to paying the 2nd round price it took to get him in most drafts. Kelce did little to prove us wrong, dropping his weekly average PPG by two points and looking much older throughout the season. This was year to get out of the Kelce business

Other players near the top of the draft that Walter faded (number of spots Walter was behind on ADP): 

Derrick Henry (22.6) 👎👎👎

Davante Adams  (9.8) 👍

Patrick Mahomes (21.1) 👍

CJ Stroud  (30.4) 👍👍

Aaron Jones (24.9) 👎👎

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Middle Rounds: Zamir White

Zamir White: 

Sleeper ADP: RB26

Walter's Rank: RB35

Overall ADP: 82

Overall Rank: 114

Difference: 36

Overall Finish: RB81

PPG Finish: RB70

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Its difficult for one pick in the middle rounds to kill your season, but boy did Zamir White do his best. It's difficult to remember that there was some hype around Zamir White who was the RB7 during the fantasy playoffs in 2023. We were not convinced however, projecting Las Vegas to have a low scoring offense and White himself to have a slim path to workhorse volume. The Raiders ended up scoring the 4th fewest TDs in the league, White's on field play regressed, and he became a completely unusable player in fantasy football. 

Other players in the middle rounds that Walter faded (number of spots Walter was behind on ADP): 

Tony Pollard  (15.6) 👎

Raheem Mostert (15.3) 👍👍

Nick Chubb  (66.2) 👍👍

Jordan Addison (25.3) 👎👎

Austin Ekeler (38.3) 👎

Sleeper Pick Walter DID NOT Buy: Trey Benson

Trey Benson: 

Sleeper ADP: RB38

Walter's Rank: RB47

Overall ADP: 123.5

Overall Rank: 188

Difference: -64.5

Overall Finish: RB68

PPG Finish: RB71

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ADP's this deep in the draft tend to have less consensus to begin with and most of the picks Walter faded in this range were handcuff RBs and rookies in bad situations. Its not really worth victory lapping a fade of Benson himself, but more highlighting that we were higher on James Conner than consensus. By being higher on Conner, we projected there to be a slimmer chance of a Benson breakout. Drafting players of Benson's type this late is very good process, but you can still create edges by identifying situations where there is less stability with the lead back. 

Other sleeper picks that Walter faded (number of spots Walter was behind on ADP): 

Cole Kmet (28.3) 👍👍

Romeo Doubs  (30.4) 👍

Zach Charbonnet (30.5) 👎

Xavier Legette  (54.2) 👎

Jaylen Wright  (57.6)👍👍

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Some notes on how we evaluated these predictions: 

*While injuries will always be a part of fantasy football, we will be ignoring major ones when recapping hits and misses. The randomness of most NFL injuries makes them extremely difficult to predict, and with major injuries you lose opportunity to evaluate player usage in their 2024 situations. 

*Overall finishes exclude Week 18 - since most fantasy leagues conclude in Week 17 

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