Predicting March Madness Upsets 2024
Before the tournament, we tweeted out a list of 4 upsets to watch for in Round 1 based on data from our March Madness tool. Here's how they did.
July 23, 2024
Patrick McDonnell
This is what we shared...
❌ Western KY (15) over Marquette (2)
- 1.7% win probability may not be likely, but it’s the highest among this year’s 15 seeds (just beating out South Dakota State at 1.5%)
- Western KY will need to lean on rebounding and free throws to pull this one off.
✅ Oakland (14) over Kentucky (3)
- At a 6.1% win probability, Oakland is the only 14 seed with a >5% chance to get a win.
- It will take a superhuman effort from Trey Townsend, Jack Gohlke, and Blake Lampman. These are the team's three leading scorers and all play over 30 minutes per game.
❌ Samford (13) over Kansas (4)
- Samford has by far the highest upset odds among 13 seeds, they are the only 13-seed above 14%.
- With a fast pace and the ability to get hot from 3, Samford has the traits necessary to pull off an upset
✅ James Madison (12) over Wisconsin (5)
- Nearly every year there is a 12 Vs 5 upset, and this year the most likely candidate is James Madison with a 32.2% win probability.
- While capable of making a deep run, Wisconsin also plays at one of the slowest paces in the country which makes them more prone to upsets.
We absolutely nailed two of these... and Samford gave us some hope with that late run! Make sure to follow us on Twitter so you don't miss insights like this!
Heading Into the Sweet 16...
Of all of the brackets created in the WalterPicks March Madness tool...
- 40.6% have their entire final four remaining 🔥
- 77.35% of brackets made in the WalterPicks tool have at least 3 of their final four remaining 👍
- 85.2% of brackets have their champion remaining 🏆
- 4% correctly picked Oakland to win in Round 1 (5.6% of our AI brackets did this 🤖📈)
- 5.94% correctly picked Yale to win in Round 1 (9.14% of our AI brackets did this 🤖📈)
- 9% correctly picked NC State to make it to the Sweet 16 🐺
- 32% correctly picked James Madison to beat Wisconsin in Round 1 (exactly our confidence level in that upset from the tweet 🎯)