Welcome to draft season! Here we are breaking down what made players league winners in recent seasons...and what we can learn from them to find targets for 2024!

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1. CeeDee Lamb (2024)

What happened in 2023:

CeeDee Lamb made the leap from the WR6 to WR1, outscoring his 2022 by nearly 80 PPR points. The Cowboys overall made the leap from the number 10 offense in the league by offensive yards to number 5, bolstered by career seasons from Lamb and Dak Prescott. CeeDee saved the best for last, scoring 40 PPR points in Week 17. Drafted as the WR6, CeeDee was still one of the best values in all of fantasy football and a true league winner. 

The Most Similar Player in 2024: Ja'Marr Chase 

CeeDee Lamb with a healthy Dak Prescott in 2022: 

19.5 PPR ppg - WR3 overall 

Ja'Marr Chase with a healthy Joe Burrow in 2023: 

20.1 PPR ppg - WR6 overall

Similar to Lamb last season, Chase is entering his fourth season and hoping for a fully healthy year from his QB. Of all of the WRs being drafted past Lamb, Chase appears most likely to take the leap to WR1 this season. As we saw with Lamb last season, nailing this type of the pick in the 1st round can ultimately win you your league. 

Other Candidates: Garrett Wilson, Jaylen Waddle 

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2. Breece Hall and Alvin Kamara (2024)

What happened in 2023:

Both of these guys brought baggage into the season that drafters drastically overestimated the impact of. Hall was coming off of a midseason ACL tear in 2022, and Kamara had been suspended the first 3 games of the season for an off-field issue. Hall was drafted as the RB16, and Kamara as the RB23. Hall finished as the RB4 in PPR formats, and Kamara as the RB9 despite both of them not being fantasy contributors for the first 3-4 weeks of the season.

The Most Similar Player in 2024: Nick Chubb 

Chubb is currently being drafted as the RB38, a much more discounted price than Hall or Kamara last season. This is due to uncertainty about whether or not he will be ready to start the season. But the lesson of Hall and Kamara is the not overestimate the early season dip. Chubb was a prolific running back pre-injury, averaging north of 5 yards per carry in every season of his professional career. Cleveland made no major attempts to bolster their RB room this offseason, and still roster one of the best offensive lines in the league. We will have to continue to pay attention to injury updates as we get closer to the season but if Chubb is getting any kind of volume he will almost certainly outperform his ADP in this offense. 

Other Candidates: Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, Austin Ekeler

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3. Puka Nacua (2024)

What happened in 2023:

Puka Nacua broke the rookie receiving yards record despite being a 5th round pick in the draft and going undrafted in most fantasy leagues. He appeared to be a perfect scheme fit for McVay's Rams and benefitted from Cooper Kupp missing the early part of the season. After establishing himself with some unprecedented target totals for rookie, Puka ended up finishing as the WR5 in PPR formats. 

The Most Similar Player in 2023: Brenden Rice 

There is a 99.999% chance there is no Puka Nacua this season. His target volume was completely unprecedented for a player with his draft capital. However, the cost of throwing darts at the potential "next Puka Nacua" is so low. Our pick for the most overlooked rookie WR is Brendan Rice who fell to the Chargers in the 7th round of the 2024 draft. His 17.6 yards per reception in his final season at USC was impressive, as was his 12 TDs in 12 games. He has a clear path to playing time in a wide open Chargers receiving room. We will be closely monitoring him during training camp. 

Other Candidates: Luke McCaffery, Jalen McMillan, Jermaine Burton

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4. Second Year Mobile QBs (2020, 2021, 2022)

What happened between 2020 and 2022:

2019 Kyler Murray (QB7) ---> 2020 Kyler Murray (QB2)

2020 Justin Herbert (QB9) ---> 2021 Justin Herbert (QB2)

2021 Jalen Hurts (QB9) ---> 2022 Jalen Hurts (QB3)

2021 Justin Fields (QB31) ---> 2022 Justin Fields (QB6) 

The leap for second year mobile QBs has been a consistent theme of the 2020s. Every starting QB with rushing ability has seen a significant jump in their second full season of playing time. 

The Most Similar Player in 2023: Anthony Richardson 

Despite starting only three games (and finishing only two) last season, Richardson's fantasy impact was immediately apparent. In the two games he finished he averaged 25.7 ppg and led all QBs in fantasy points per dropback. Richardson will be a popular "sexy" pick this year. He fits the mold of the second year breakout mobile QB, and his sample from last season was scintillating. 

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