Welcome to draft season! These are 3 players that massively underperformed their draft price in 2023, and some similar players to avoid for this season!

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1. Austin Ekeler

What happened in 2023: 

Austin Ekeler was drafted as the overall RB2 following two consecutive seasons averaging 21+ PPR points per game. There was a huge drop off in production after Week 1, averaging only 12.3 PPR points per game the rest of the way. He finished as the RB25 in PPR points per game and disappointed his drafters immensely.  

Ekeler's best year of production were never fueled elite talent, but instead by a combination of incredible volume and an absurd TD rate. During his RB1 campaign in 2022 he was first in TDs, first in receptions, and second in receiving yards amongst all RBs. But he was a merely 15th in yards per carry and 21st in receiving yards. A combination of some injuries and brutal TD regression (5.8% rate down to 2.6%) led to him being one of the biggest busts of 2023. 

Player to be careful of in 2024: Travis Etienne 

None of the RBs being drafted in the top half of the first round have the same red flags as Ekeler last season. However, Etienne checks a lot of these boxes and is being drafted right around the end of the second round. Etienne was the overall RB2 last season but had less than ideal efficiency. His 3.8 yards per carry ranked 23rd amongst RBs and he ranked 6th in total TDs. He is much younger than Ekeler and in an offense with potential to improve. But as Ekeler showed us last year, using a pick on non-elite players in this range of the draft can be a dangerous game. 

Other Candidates: Rachaad White, Aaron Jones 

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2. Darren Waller

What happened in 2023:

In March the Giants traded a third rounder for a 30 year old Darren Waller, coming off of an injury riddled 2022. High historical target rates from Waller, a lack of weapons for the Giants, and the high cost of the acquisition gave many hope that he may be a true number one option in the Giants' offense. By the time draft season arrived, Waller was being drafted as the TE5 and going inside of the 5th round. He finished as the TE13 in PPR ppg and missed all of Weeks 10-14 with injuries. 

Player to be careful of in 2024: Dalton Kincaid 

Kincaid doesn't have the same red flags as Darren Waller did a season ago. He is entering only his second season, following up what was a mostly healthy rookie campaign. The reason he is the player who most reminds us of Waller is because his ADP is being inflated by his upside. Kincaid is currently being drafted as the TE5 on Underdog and going inside of the 5th round (familiar?). Much of this is due to the fact that he could theoretically be the number one option in Buffalo this season after the departure of both Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs. The truth is that this price is too high for a TE who was the TE14 in PPR ppg last season, failed to eclipse 20 PPR points in any single week, and is likely to have Dawson Knox working into his snap share. 

Other Candidates: Diontae Johnson, Stefon Diggs 

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3. Dalvin Cook

What happened in 2023:

Cook was drafted as the RB26 after the Jets signed him to a one year deal late into the summer. The expectation was that Cook would have a significant role in a surging Jets offense as Breece Hall worked his way back from injury. Cook was basically a non-factor for fantasy, averaging only 2.7 PPR points per game. In retrospect, Cook's declining efficiency in 2022 should've been a much greater warning sign. 

Player to be careful of in 2024: Ezekiel Elliott 

Zeke projects to have a larger workload than Cook this season, but his efficiency numbers have been in a steep decline for a few years now. He ranked outside the top 50 RBs in yards per carrry in each of the last two seasons. His yards per touch (4.1) last year ranked 51st amongst all RBs. He was a viable fantasy option at the end of last season purely because of volume, and there is a chance that his scoring opportunities take a big jump in the Cowboys offense. But his efficiency trends also suggest that he could fall off a cliff and lose volume quickly. 

Other Candidates: Javonte Williams, Chuba Hubbard 

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