Player Prop Report Card Week 6 🏈
A recap of how our prop picks performed for Week 6!
October 21, 2024
Patrick McDonnell
Week 6
- Overall Record: 5-6 (45.5%)
- Change in Units: -1.57
- Results based on unit size:
- $5 Bettor is -$7.85
- $10 Bettor is -$15.70
- $20 Bettor is -$31.40
2024 Entire Season Record
- Overall Record: 49-39 (55.7%)
- Change in Units: +0.84
- Results based on unit size:
- $5 Bettor is +$4.81
- $10 Bettor is +$8.36
- $20 Bettor is +$16.71
Prop Summary/Notes
- ❌ Brandon Aiyuk Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (15% EV)- Result: 37
- Aiyuk only had a 14.8% target share in a game where the 49ers only had 28 pass attempts.
- ✅ Brock Purdy Over 249.5 Passing Yards (18% EV)- Result: 255
- Purdy has surpassed this number in 4/6 games this season and has not gone under 231 yet.
- ❌ Brian Thomas Jr. Over 54.5 Receiving Yards (21% EV)- Result: 27
- ❌ DJ Moore Over 4.5 Receptions (16.5% EV)- Result: 4
- The Bears offense dominated but Moore had his lowest target share of the entire season.
- ❌ Tucker Kraft Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (17.5% EV)- Result: 13
- ❌ Justin Herbert Under 190.5 Passing Yards (12% EV)- Result: 237
- This was the first time Herbert had surpassed this mark all season (screams).
- ✅ Jared Goff Over 240.5 Passing Yards (21.7% EV)- Result: 315
- ✅ Jalen Tolbert Over 3.5 Receptions (20% EV)- Result: 4
- ❌ Jalen Tolbert Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (18.5% EV)- Result: 43
- Tolbert dropped a deep ball that hit him square late in the game - a tough beat as he was used in a very similar role as when his receiving yards over hit in Week 5.
- ✅ Tee Higgins Over 4.5 Receptions (20.2% EV)- Result: 7
- Higgins has now had more targets than Chase in 3 consecutive games.
- ✅ Ray Davis Over 11.5 Rushing Yards (14% EV)- Result: 97
- We expected Ray Davis to exceed this with James Cook playing and posted it about 2 hours before the Cook new came. Davis looked awesome and should get more rushing work moving forward.