Player Prop Report Card Week 3 🏈
A recap of how our prop picks performed for Week 3!
September 30, 2024
Patrick McDonnell
Week 3
- Overall Record: 4-7 (36.4%)
- Change in Units: -5.72
- Results based on unit size:
- $5 Bettor is -$28.60
- $10 Bettor is -$57.19
- $20 Bettor is -$114.39
2024 Entire Season Record
- Overall Record: 27-23 (54%)
- Change in Units: -2.36
- Results based on unit size:
- $5 Bettor is -$11.78
- $10 Bettor is -$23.55
- $20 Bettor is -$47.11
Prop Summary/Notes
- ✅ Josh Downs Under 3.5 Receptions (21% EV)- Result: 3
- This line moved to 2.5 receptions on most books almost immediately after we posted.
- ✅ Baker Mayfield Under 249.5 Passing Yards (16% EV)- Result: 163
- If you caught this one early enough you could've gotten it at 260.5. By kickoff, it was at 235.5.
- ✅ Bucky Irving Over 25.5 Rushing Yards (17.5% EV)- Result: 70
- ❌ Jalen Nailor Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (21.6% EV)- Result: 31
- Tough beat on this one. He had one other catch get called back due to a flag that would have put him over.
- ❌ Malik Willis Under 158.5 Passing Yards (28% EV)- Result: 202
- ❌ Jaylen Waddle Over .5 Rushing Yards (26% EV)- Result: 0
- Waddle did have one rush credited that was later changed to a pass attempt. It was extremely close.
- ❌ Tyreek Hill Over .5 Rushing Yards (35% EV)- Result: 0
- When this line was first posted it was at +160. It had changed to -120 on most books by kickoff. Fantastic value, and a tough miss.
- ✅ Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 73.5 Receiving Yards (17% EV)- Result: 74
- ❌ Jameson Williams Over 3.5 Receptions (16% EV)- Result: 1
- The Lions passed much less than in previous games. The St. Brown line also went up over the course of the week so hopefully you took it when we posted.
- ❌ Travis Etienne Over 20.5 Receiving Yards (20.7% EV)- Result: 17
- Etienne had 6 targets but there were some bad miscues between him and Lawrence.
- ❌ Brian Robinson Over 50.5 Rushing Yards (21% EV)- Result: 31
- 16 carries should've been able to get this done but the Bengals defense held him to 2.1 YPC.
This was a very tough week but drastic line movement on many of these picks suggests good process. Its a long season. We remain extremely confident in the values we are identifying.
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