Player Prop Report Card Week 14 🏈

A recap of how our prop picks performed for Week 14!

December 16, 2024

Patrick McDonnell

Week 14 Results

Overall Record: 14-6 (70%)
Change in Units: +7.57
Results based on unit size:
- $5 Bettor is +$37.85
- $10 Bettor is +$75.71
- $20 Bettor is +$151.42

2024 Entire Season Record

Overall Record: 120-99 (53.3%)
Change in Units: +7.56
Results based on unit size:
- $5 Bettor is +$37.79
- $10 Bettor is +$75.58
- $20 Bettor is +$151.16

Prop Summary/Notes

✅ Christian Watson Over 3.5 Receptions (16% EV)- Result: 4
✅ David Montgomery Over 13.5 Receiving Yards (18.5% EV)- Result: 33
- This line was up to 19.5 on a lot of books by game time.
✅ Pat Freiermuth Over 25.5 Receiving Yards (16% EV)- Result: 48
✅ Jakobi Meyers Over 5.5 Receptions (22% EV)- Result: 7
✅ Jakobi Meyers Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (16% EV)- Result: 67
- Next week's lines will be more difficult to evaluate with Desmond Ridder under center for the Raiders but Meyers has been very profitable for the past 6 weeks.
❌ Aaron Rodgers Under 247.5 Passing + Rushing Yards (15% EV)- Result: 327
✅ Jordan Addison Over 3.5 Receptions (16% EV)- Result: 8
- Sam Darnold legacy game was a rising tide.
❌ Derek Carr Under 30.5 Pass Attempts (15% EV)- Result: 31
❌ Tony Pollard Over 2.5 Receptions (25% EV)- Result: 2
✅ Jalen Hurts Under 26.5 Passing Attempts (15% EV)- Result: 21
❌ Kenneth Gainwell To Score a Touchdown (17% EV)- Result: 0
- This one was always going to be a longshot but moved from +800 to +400 with 24 hours of us posting about it.
✅ Kenneth Gainwell Over 20.5 Rushing Yards (21.5% EV)- Result: 26
✅ Drew Lock Under .5 Passing Touchdowns (17% EV)- Result: 0
✅ Nick Chubb Under 50.5 Rushing Yards (17% EV)- Result: 48
❌ Mac Jones Under 201.5 Passing Yards (13% EV)- Result: 220
✅ Ray-Ray McCloud III Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (21.7% EV)- Result: 98
✅ Geno Smith Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (16% EV)- Result: 1
- For 3 weeks we have recommended this one, for 3 weeks it has hit.
✅ James Conner Over 15.5 Receiving Yards (20% EV)- Result: 32
❌ D'Andre Swift Over 46.5 Rushing Yards (17% EV)- Result: 38
- With Roschon Johnson out this seemed like a fantastic line. The game script betrayed us on this one as the Bears got outgained by about 300 yards in the first half.
✅ Khalil Shakir Over 54.5 Receiving Yards (19% EV)- Result: 106
- Shakir continues to be a favorite for us. This one was an even better value once Coleman and Kincaid were ruled out.
❌ Brandin Cooks Over 2.5 Receptions (17.6% EV)- Result: 1