Week 1

• Overall Record: 10-11 (45.5%)
• Change in Units: -2.37
• Results based on unit size:
  • $5 Bettor is -$11.83
  • $10 Bettor is -$23.67
  • $20 Bettor is -$47.34

2023 Season Record

• Overall Record: 160-120 (57.1%)
• Change in Units: +45.87
• Results based on unit size:
  • $5 Bettor is +$229.36
  • $10 Bettor is +$458.72
  • $20 Bettor is +$917.43

Prop Summary/Notes

• ✅ Xavier Worthy Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (22% EV)- Result: 47
  
  • This line moved almost immediately after we posted the write-up and was up to 47.5 at game time. He is an explosive enough player to cover a line like this on very low volume. 
• ❌ Xavier Worthy Over 3.5 Receptions (18% EV)- Result: 2
• ❌ Dontayvion Wicks Over 28.5 Receiving Yards (17% EV)- Result: 0
• ❌ Luke Musgrave Over 26.5 Receiving Yards (20% EV)- Result: 0
  
  • Each of these Packers got the targets necessary to hit these marks. This may be a difficult group of pass catchers to predict this season and the injury to Jordan Love throws even more uncertainty into the fold. 
• ✅ Taysom Hill Over 14.5 Rushing Yards (23% EV)- Result: 35
  • This one will no doubt be higher in the future. 
• ❌ Alvin Kamara Under 61.5 Rushing Yards (16% EV)- Result: 83
  • This line moved almost immediately to under 60 yards after posting and lost most of its value. Kamara smashed anyways, but another example of the importance of timing. 
• ✅ Tyjae Spears Over 2.5 Receptions (25% EV)- Result: 4
  • Spears was one of our most popular picks last season and was one of our highest value props this week. Our record on Spears props is now 4-1 all-time. 
• ❌ Rome Odunze Over 3.5 Receptions (15% EV)- Result: 1
• ❌ Calvin Ridley Over 4.5 Receptions (17.5% EV)- Result: 3
• ❌ Kyle Pitts Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (22% EV)- Result: 26
• ❌ Kyle Pitts Over 3.5 Receptions (17% EV)- Result: 3
  • Kyle Pitts' participation numbers in the offense were fantastic today. There is still reason to be bullish moving forward. 
• ✅ Malik Nabers Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (19% EV)- Result: 66
  • Nabers' target share was lower than we projected but a good debut nonetheless. 
• ✅ Joe Mixon Over 53.5 Rushing Yards (18% EV)- Result: 159
• ❌ Tank Dell Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (18% EV)- Result: 40
  • We projected Dell for a 21% target share and he had a 23% target share and 7 targets but only 3 catches for 40 yards. Tough beat. 
• ❌ Trevor Lawrence Over 248.5 Passing Yards (20% EV)- Result: 162
  • Lawrence only threw 21 passes in this game. Bad miss. 
• ✅ Rico Dowdle Over 25.5 Rushing Yards (17% EV)- Result: 26
• ❌ Kenneth Walker Over 10.5 Receiving Yards (16% EV)- Result: 6
  • Charbonnet saw some nice chunk plays from receptions in the 4th quarter. We still expect Walker to have some involvement in the passing game. 
• ✅ Jaleel McLaughlin Over 1.5 Receptions (19.1% EV)- Result: 5
  • This one felt so free. The line will be much higher going forward with Nix's minuscule ADOT and the high volume of targets to both RBs. 
• ✅ Matthew Stafford Over 268.5 Passing Yards (23% EV)- Result: 317 
• ✅ Jameson Williams Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (19% EV)- Result: 121
• ✅ Cooper Kupp Over 5.5 Receptions (18% EV)- Result: 14 
  • All three of our props smashed in this Rams-Lions game. Expect a much higher total set for Williams next week! 
• 🚑 Christian McCaffrey Over 72.5 Rushing Yards (17% EV)- Result: VOID

‍

It's obviously disappointing to have a losing Week 1 but its important to remember that this is part of the process. In Week 1 of 2023 our picks netted -2.34 units but we ultimately finished the season +45.74 units. For more information on our results from 2023 you can read this article!