Full Season NFL Player Prop Betting Recap
A much deeper look at our player prop betting results for the 2024 season - analysis on which kinds of bets hit most, which positions we predicted the best, and some areas where we will look to improve in 2025.
February 14, 2025
Patrick McDonnell
2024 Season Results (final count!)
- Overall Record: 163-126 (56.4%)
- Change in Units: +23
- Results based on unit size:
- $5 Bettor is +$115.05
- $10 Bettor is +$230.02
- $20 Bettor is +$460.05
2023 Season for Comparison
- Overall Record: 160-120 (57.1%)
- Change in Units: +45.87
- Results based on unit size:
- $5 Bettor is +$229.36
- $10 Bettor is +$458.72
- $20 Bettor is +$917.43
Overs vs. Unders
- Overs Record: 142-115 (55.3%)
- Change in Units: +15.63
- Unders Record: 21-11 (65.6%)
- Change in Units: +7.37
Prop Records by Position
- QB Record: 29-24 (54.7%)
- Change in Units: +4.28
- RB Record: 63-51 (55.3%)
- Change in Units: +4.28
- TE Record: 19-13 (59.4%)
- Change in Units: +6.02
- WR Record: 51-38 (57.3%)
- Change in Units: +7.57
Highlighting Records of Prop Types
- Total Passing TDs: 5-3 (62.5%)
- Change in Units: +2.11
- Total Passing Yards: 10-6 (62.5%)
- Change in Units: +2.42
- Total Receiving Yards: 43-37 (53.8%)
- Change in Units: +2.40
- Total Rushing Yards: 30-20 (60%)
- Change in Units: +3.92
- Total Receptions: 44-26 (62.9%)
- Change in Units: +14.3
- Total Rushing + Receiving Yards: 5-6 (45.5%)
- Change in Units: -1.75
- Anytime TD: 4-5 (44.4%)
- Change in Units: +3.2
Key Takeaways/Other Notes
- Overall record was very similar to last year but leaning into heavier favorites made the unit gain smaller
- For the second straight year Unders hit at a higher percentage than Overs
- Total Receptions was by far our most successful prop type, profiting 14+ units on 70 picks
- There were no noticeable positional disparities between positions this season - very different from last year where WRs were by far the most profitable.
- Our first year supporting anytime TDs in the evaluator was a success - the long odds led to these being profitable despite a hit rate less than 50%!