Full Season NBA Player Prop Betting Recap - 23/24 Season
A deep look at the results of our NBA prop picks for the 2023-2024 season - analysis on which kinds of bets hit most, which positions we predicted the best, and some areas where we will look to improve next season
October 18, 2024
Patrick McDonnell
Entire 2023-2024 Season (Final Count!)
- Overall Record: 245-218 (59.9%)
- Change in Units: +18.59
- Results based on unit size:
- $5 Bettor is +$92.97
- $10 Bettor is +$185.93
- $20 Bettor is +$371.87
Overs vs. Unders
- Overs Record: 162-147 (52.4%)
- Change in Units: +13.36
- Unders Record: 83-73 (53.9%)
- Change in Units: +5.24
Prop Records by Position
- Centers Record: 62-43 (59%)
- Change in Units: +20.64
- Forwards Record: 85-80 (51.5%)
- Change in Units: -1.04
- Guards Record: 98-95 (50.8%)
- Change in Units: -1.01
Prop Records by Type
- Total Assists: 37-35 (51.4%)
- Change in Units: -2.43
- Total Points: 29-25 (53.7%)
- Change in Units: +4.50
- Total Points+Assists: 22-17 (56.4%)
- Change in Units: +5.14
- Total Points+Rebounds: 27-25 (51.9%)
- Change in Units: +2.45
- Total Points+Rebounds+Assists: 38-32 (50.7%)
- Change in Units: +1.97
- Total Rebounds: 41-41 (50%)
- Change in Units: -4.02
- Total Rebounds+Assists: 51-38 (57.3%)
- Change in Units: +10.98
Key Takeaways/Other Notes
- Centers were by far our most profitable position group. We had the fewest props for them, but its clear Walter's projections for that group were very valuable.
- Rebounds+Assists was both our most frequently recommended prop type and our most profitable.
- Bets on Total Rebounds were our least profitable prop type overall but this was not true for Centers. Walter went 16-6 on total rebounds bets for centers and profited 9.45 units.
- Bets on Total Rebounds for Forwards were a disaster. Walter went 7-20 for a loss of 13.37 units.
- Total Points+Rebounds for Guards was also rough. Walter went 8-13 for a loss of 5 units.
- Historical data vs. a particular team tended to be more predictive for star players as opposed to role players - likely due to higher volume and consistency of usage for the stars.
- Following trends and tracking recent performances was very helpful in identifying winners this year.
- Consistency matters. We went through some rough stretches this season but big picture looks like this over time continue to prove that Walter is creating an edge.
