The Context: From 5/27 to now we've been taking snapshots of ADP (average draft position) for Underdog best ball drafts and tracking the player markets. Understanding shifts in ADP can give us better context for why players are taken where they are come late August, and insights into how to find edges. 

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These are the biggest ADP risers and fallers between 5/27 and 7/19, and what we should takeaway from these movements!

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QB Risers

QB Fallers

• JJ McCarthy and Sam Darnold are moving in opposite directions indicating that sharp markets think Darnold may be starting more games. We still project McCarthy to have more upside (ceiling of QB11 vs. Darnold's QB23) 
• Stroud, Burrow, Williams, Cousins, Tagovailoa, and Mayfield are all expected to be non-mobile QBs in really good passing offenses and TD dependent. Sharps are clearly being more reluctant to pay a premium for this type. 
• The QB position in general appears to be dropping with the top 2 draft picks going around 5 picks later than they were in May. 
• Walter has Jayden Daniels ranked as the QB10. Don't be surprised if he continues to rise after training camp begins. 

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RB Risers

RB Fallers

• The risers are almost entirely guys who stand to inherit huge work loads in the event of an injury - This is a player type that will be less valuable in season-long than in Best Ball. 
• The sharps are losing confidence in Nick Chubb's availability for this year. Some discouraging injury reports this week back that up. 
• The Josh Jacobs drop is interesting as he doesn't fit the mold of many of the other droppers. Walter currently has him ranked as the RB14 with a ceiling as the RB4. Indications from the Packers about his usage could swing his ADP wildly. 

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WR Risers

WR Fallers

• The Patriots had their first WR being taken 30+ picks later than any other team immediately after the draft. Rises from Douglas and Polk make a lot of sense as sharps have pinned them as the potential number 1 options. Walter prefers Polk as the upside option, projecting him with a ceiling as the WR49. 
• Jalen McMillan and Jameson Williams bumps are likely due to buzz about them in mini-camp. 
• The WR falls are relatively unsubstantial when compared to other position groups. The values for this position group feel more stable. 
• Michael Pittman Jr. is becoming a value. Walter has him ranked as the WR22.
• Rashee Rice appears to have risen 20 spots because he hasn't been suspended...yet.

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TE Risers

TE Fallers

• Noah Fant is the lone significant riser of the group. He saw his highest yards per target and yards per reception numbers last season since being traded to Seattle. Walter has him ranked as the TE19. 
• Falls from Juwan Johnson and TJ Hockenson are likely due to injury updates.
• Ben Sinnott is still being overvalued. Walter has him ranked as the TE25.

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