The Context: We used AI to run 10,000 simulations of each week for the upcoming season using Walter's projections and standard deviations to get a projected 95th percentile fantasy score (AKA projected weekly ceiling) for each player in 2024. The thought here is that not all "boom" or "spike" weeks are created equal, and one BIG spike week is what can win you a big tournament in Week 17. We can chase ceiling slightly more in Best Ball than re-draft because we don't need to worry about start/sits. 

*This is obviously not a perfect analysis, but is an interesting way to interpret Walter's projections combined with player's weekly volatility from a season ago to get a different type of ceiling projection. This simulation also completely ignores rookies, many of which will have high weekly ceilings.

*Also worth noting that Walter's projections will absolutely change between now and September so these simulation results will also change.

All of that being said here are the initial takeaways for each position group:

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QB Takeaways

• CJ Stroud was 4th in 2023 QB ceiling, and has the highest ceiling among all QB's in the simulations (just barely ahead of Hurts). It is surprising to see a non-rushing QB at the top, but Stroud is coming off of one of the greatest rookie QB seasons of all time and his team got much better this offseason 🚀
• Dak Prescott had the 3rd highest ceiling in 2023 and the 4th highest in the 2024 simulation. He is extremely underrated, currently getting picked as QB9 👀
• Daniel Jones had the 8th highest simulated ceiling (albeit projected as the weekly QB26 on average). This is off of a small sample of games last season but he has rushing upside, and just added an elite rookie receiver. Its easy to see why his price has been trending upward these past few weeks 📈
• Justin Herbert had the 7th highest ceiling in 2023 and ranked 9th highest in the 2024 simulation 🤔
• Kyler Murray ranked 22nd in 2023 and 21st in  this year's ceiling simulation. This is likely due to a small sample bias as he does have the 4th highest weekly average projection.
• Stafford and Tua ranked 22nd and 23rd respectively in the ceiling simulation despite elite supporting casts.
• Jordan Love's ceiling ranked 18th, a good bit lower than his average weekly projection as QB11.

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RB Takeaways

• CMC (the rightful 1.01 this year) had the highest ceiling by a decent margin in 2023 but 2 RB's had a higher simulated ceiling: Breece Hall and Devon Achane. Both appear to be worth very early picks in drafts 🔥
• James Cook had 6th highest RB ceiling in the sim after his ceiling ranked 17th in 2023. He is currently being drafted as the RB13 👀
• James Conner and Zack Moss ranked 15th and 16th in simulated RB ceiling, well ahead of their RB27 and RB26 ADP's. Both project to have goal line roles in strong offenses ✍️
• Rachaad White ranked 27th in 2023 ceiling and he also ranked 27th in 2024 projected ceiling. His workload is very unlikely to increase this year considering he ranked top 3 in touches last season. He is an easy Do Not Draft at an ADP of RB14 ❌
• D'Andre Swift had some bad TD luck last season, but his 33rd ranked 2023 ceiling and projected 34th ranked 2024 ceiling does not inspire confidence. He's never really been high usage or goal line back and he will likely be in a committee again this year. Another easy Do Not Draft ❌
• Zamir White's projected ceiling ranked just 38th (small sample bias but...this year's Mike Davis?) 😬

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WR Takeaways

• Amari Cooper had the 12th highest 2023 ceiling and ranks 1st in projected 2024 ceiling...despite his average projection being ranked outside the top 20 🤔
• Keenan Allen had the highest 2023 ceiling of any WR. It might be worth prioritizing a Chargers WR in mid-late rounds 🎯
• Deebo Samuel had a higher ceiling than Brandon Aiyuk in 2023 and has a projected weekly ceiling nearly 4 PPR points higher for 2024. Aiyuk is currently being drafted ahead of Deebo on Underdog 👀
• Gabe Davis ranks 22nd in projected ceiling for 2024 - ahead of guys like Jaylen Waddle, Tee Higgins, Chris Olave, Devonta Smith, and Michael Pittman Jr. He is a swing for the fences kind of pick 🚀
• Davante Adams ranks 6th in amongst WRs for projected 2024 ceiling and 11th in average weekly projection. He absolutely should be one of the first 10 receivers of the board in Best Ball drafts ✅

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TE Takeaways

• Jake Ferguson ranks 1st in projected 2024 ceiling and is pretty clearly the answer to the test at TE this year 📈
• Juwan Johnson and Hunter Henry look like solid late-round options this season. Both had top 16 ceilings last year and are projected in a similar range for this year ✍️
• Evan Engram ranks 2nd in projected 2024 ceiling depite being drafted as the TE8 🔥

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