As the 2024 fantasy season winds down, results in most leagues can often be boiled down to a select few draft picks that provided massive advantages - these things defined the season! 

These were the 3 Truth's that we identified as defining last season: 

1. CMC is the only good RB. 

2. The Travis Kelce draft strategy is dead. 

3. Mike McDaniel is a fantasy goldmine. 

Off of these truth's we predicted that CMC would the obvious 1.01 in 2024 (he was before he injured his calf), Travis Kelce would not be a first round pick (he was not), and that Jaylen Waddle would be well worth a swing at his 2024 price (😬). Read last year's article here!

With the 2024 fantasy season in the books we can now identify the defining truths of fantasy football for this year - and begin to speculate at how they will influence 2025 drafts. 

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1. Veteran RBs DOMINATED.

What happened in 2024:

Saquon Barkley --> Preseason ADP = RB5

RB PPG Finish = RB1 

Derrick Henry --> Preseason ADP = RB9

RB PPG Finish = RB4

Alvin Kamara --> Preseason ADP = RB15

RB PPG Finish = RB5

Joe Mixon --> Preseason ADP = RB16

RB PPG Finish = RB6

RBs re-emerged in 2024, largely being better picks than WRs in the first four rounds and bucking recent trends. Part of this is health related. Of the first 20 RBs drafted on Sleeper, only Christian McCaffery, Isiah Pacheco missed significant time due to injury. But the story of the RB boom lies in these four players. All 4 were significantly discounted compared to previous seasons based on concerns about age or team-fit. Saquon and Derrick Henry posted the highest YPC of their careers in improved offenses. And Mixon and Kamara were able to maintain volume and efficiency near peak levels despite both being over the age of 28. 

What it means for 2025: More balance in drafts between WRs and RBs

WRs dominated the early part of drafts this year. Only 3 RBs on average were going in the first 10 picks. This was a symptom of WRs massively outperforming RBs in early rounds in 2022 and 2023. Expect this to rebound back next season.

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2. QB concerns were largely overblown.

What happened in 2024:

"Daniel Jones has never produced a big season for a receiver...why would I take Malik Nabers over DK Metcalf? Or Cooper Kupp? Or DJ Moore?" 

This was a common sentiment during draft season that led to Nabers being drafted 47th overall in Sleeper drafts on average. Simultaneously, his rookie counterpart Marvin Harrison Jr. was being taken 14th overall because he was catching passes from Kyler Murray. Malik Nabers finished as the WR9 in PPR ppg. Harrison Jr. finished as the WR43. 

Nabers wasn't the only value found from a QB scare. People were nervous about Justin Jefferson with Sam Darnold and his finished as the WR2 in ppg. Brock Bowers was being drafted as the TE9 and finished as the TE2 in ppg. Mike Evans was being drafted as the WR14. He and Chris Godwin both finished top 10 in ppg. 

As a whole, the fantasy community was too rigid in there QB evaluations. Those who bet on talented receivers in (thought to be) sketchy situations reaped the benefits. 

What it means for 2025: WR rankings rely less on QBs.

Projecting Nabers as a fourth rounder because of Daniel Jones feels silly - as does drafting Garrett Wilson in the first round because he was catching passes from Aaron Rodgers. The community will likely be more open minded than ever about QB production next year. WRs who have produced will go earlier than those who have not. And rookies will be ranked by talent moreso than situation. 

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3. The 49ers were a mess.

What happened in 2024:

Usually there is a team that has an offensive explosion and those that target their players get league winning value. The Dolphins were certainly this last year with Tyreek Hill breaking records and their RBs setting the world on fire. The 49ers were the inverse of that this season. If you drafted any of these players, you spent most of the year pulling your hair out. 

Christian McCaffery --> Preseason ADP = RB1

RB PPG Finish = RB26

Brandon Aiyuk --> Preseason ADP = WR13

WR PPG Finish = WR58 

Deebo Samuel --> Preseason ADP = WR15

WR PPG Finish = WR45

Sure, Purdy lived up to ADP. Kittle had another excellent season. But this was a very strange year for the 49ers offense. Aiyuk and CMC obviously faced major injury issues but their actual on-field production was alarming. The 49ers offense was still a source of fantasy production with guys like Jauan Jennings, Jordan Mason, and Isaac Guerendo being valuable waiver pick-ups. But those three guys listed up top were expensive picks thought to be very steady contributors and laid gigantic eggs. 

What it means for 2025: The luster of Shanahan will be dimmed. 

The stink of these 3 draft picks will linger across the entire 49ers team. Burnt managers are likely to be down on the whole operation. There will be opportunity to buy other players. Shanahan is one of the most innovative play callers in the game and drafting 49ers players has been a consistent recipe for success. Even if the arrow is pointed down on Deebo and CMC, and Aiyuk is coming off of a major injury, exploring other options on the roster is a worthy gambit. 

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