Now that the 2023 fantasy season has wrapped we are going doing some reflecting on what led to fantasy success/failure. These are 3 truths that defined winning and losing for a vast majority of players in 2023 - a peak at what it might mean for next season!

1. CMC is the only good fantasy running back.

What happened in 2023:

Preseason worries about how much Elijah Mitchell might cut into CMC's snap share proved to be overblown. CMC was a volume hog in the best scoring offense of his career. These are the top 5 RBs of 2023 and their points scored:

1. CMC - 391.3

2. Travis Etienne Jr. - 268.7

3. Raheem Mostert - 267.7

4. Breece Hall - 261.5

5. Kyren Williams - 255 (only 12 weeks played!)

CMC outscored every other running back by 120+ PPR points and was the only RB with an ADP in the first two rounds to finish in the top 5. He's not actually the "only good RB"...but there moments in 2023 where it felt like it. 

What it means for 2024: CMC is the obvious pick at 1.01

For years Travis Kelce has been hailed "the biggest advantage in fantasy football" because of the scoring gap you were guaranteed by having him slotted into the TE position. This year CMC was the biggest advantage in fantasy football AT THE RB POSITION. In 2024 there will certainly be those who argue for WRs at the 1.01, but if CMC remains healthy and the situation is largely the same, he is the obvious 1.01 in drafts next season. 

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2. The Travis Kelce draft strategy is dead.

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What happened in 2023:

The case for taking Travis Kelce at the 1.01 in 2023 was there. Over the course of the past 7 seasons he had consistently been a massive positional advantage at the TE position. This put him at an average ADP of 5.4 in 2023 drafts. Well at the age of 34 he finally started to regress. His average of 14.6 PPR points per game was 4 points lower than in 2022. And a young crop of ascending TEs matched his 14 PPG production, deleting the positional advantage that Kelce had created for so long. 

What it means for 2024: Travis Kelce will not be a first round pick. 

Kelce is now a declining player in an offense that has been mightily inconsistent in 2023. While he was able to produce at the top level of TEs this year, the rest of the pack caught up to him. Elite TE production can now be found elsewhere. Nobody should be building their fantasy team around Kelce in 2024. 

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3. McDaniel is a fantasy goldmine.

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What happened in 2023:

Dolphins rank in RB fantasy scoring for PPR: 1st

Dolphins rank in WR fantasy scoring for PPR: 1st 

Tyreek Hill finished 1st amongst WRs in PPG. Raheem Mostert finished as the RB3 despite having an 11th round ADP. Mostert AND Achane finished top 5 in PPR points per game amongst RBs. 

All of the talk about the Dolphins regressing after their hot start in 2022 was moot. McDaniel is officially in the Shanahan/McVay territory of getting as assumed fantasy bump for his mere presence. Everybody is going to want a piece. 

What it means for 2024: Jaylen Waddle should be appropriately priced. 

The perception of Jaylen Waddle in 2023 has been a bit of a rollercoaster. He vastly underperformed his ADP of 22.5 finishing a good distance outside of the top 20 WRs, something his unsustainable efficiency in 2022 had forecasted. Most preliminary rankings for 2024 have Waddle around 40 and just outside the top 20 receivers. Given his ceiling in the McDaniel offense, Waddle will be well worth a swing at this price. 

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