As we continue to analyze Walter's 2023 predictive performance, it is important to take stock of some of the things that Walter did not see coming. Here are three players that smashed through Walter's projected ceiling - and the lessons we can learn from them. 

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Dak Prescott: 

Underdog ADP: QB9

Walter's Rank: QB10

Walter's Ceiling: QB7

Overall Finish: QB4

PPG Finish: QB5

How it happened:

After underwhelming due to injury in 2022, Dak returned to being a force in fantasy football this season. His passing attempts, passing yards, and touchdowns were in line with his 2021 season where he finished as the QB9. But he benefitted from a bump in rushing yards and a much weaker QB field for fantasy football. In Weeks 1-17 of 2023 only 6 QBs eclipsed 300 fantasy points, as opposed to 8 in 2021. His biggest separator was his red zone usage, finishing first in red zone passing attempts and in passing TDs. 

The Lesson: 

There is value in stability at the QB position. Dak was not a sexy name in 2023 drafts and seen as a fall back option for those that missed on the top 6-8 QBs (most of whom were young and ascending). But Dak had years showcasing a stable floor and the potential to pilot one of the league's most explosive offenses. While there is likely to be red zone regression in 2024, QBs like Dak shouldn't be seen as significant downgrades from guys at the top of the draft. 

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Rashee Rice: 

Underdog ADP: WR56

Walter's Rank: WR83

Walter's Ceiling: WR40

Overall Finish: WR21

PPG Finish: WR27

How it happened: 

Like most successful rookie WRs, Rice came on late in the season. In weeks 12-17, he averaged 18.5 double digit PPR points per game and was the WR4. His floor early in the season was high enough to get him to an overall finish of WR21. In a KC offense dying for a pass catcher to step up, Rice was the one who did. Him and Kelce have been Mahomes' go to guys throughout the playoffs and Rice will likely be going in the first four rounds of fantasy drafts next season. 

The Lesson: 

With the departure of JuJu Smith-Schuster, the Chiefs offense had a gaping target vacancy and a variety of guys that could step up. Skyy Moore, Kadarious Toney, and Justyn Ross all had cases to breakout before the season. But Rice was the one that did. All of these other options had red flags entering 2023. Moore had failed to pop in his rookie season, Toney had availability and preparation concerns, and Ross had gone undrafted in 2022. Perhaps in situations like this we should be more open to a guy like Rice, whom the Chiefs spent a high pick on and had no red flags entering the year. 

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Alvin Kamara: 

Underdog ADP: RB23

Walter's Rank: RB30

Walter's Ceiling: RB11

Overall Finish: RB9

PPG Finish: RB3

How it happened: 

Kamara returned from a 3 game suspension to average 17.9 PPR points per game the rest of the way. He continued to be one of the best receiving backs in the NFL, finishing 2nd amongst running backs in target share and receptions. And he actually underperformed his expected points, being 9th in red zone touches but only 24th in total TDs. 

The Lesson: 

Don't overestimate the impact of suspensions at the beginning of the season. Kamara went underpriced because of his guaranteed missed time. But the beginning of the season (with no bye weeks and fewer injuries) is the easiest time to fill out your lineup with solid options. Given the volatility at the running back position, drafting a guy with as stable a receiving floor as Kamara should've been seen as a more favorable proposition. 

Other guys who finished ahead of Walter's projected ceiling: 

Rashaad White

Raheem Mostert 

Sam LaPorta

Brock Purdy  

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Some notes on how we evaluated these predictions: 

*We picked examples that Walter was lower on than consensus only because other examples are more indicative of industry wide misses. 

*We steered clear of breakouts created by major and surprising injuries such as Gus Edwards and Jerome Ford. 

*Overall finishes exclude Week 18 - since most fantasy leagues conclude in Week 17 

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